Bibliography



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Found 4 entries in the Bibliography.


Showing entries from 1 through 4


2021

Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, and high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90\% are overpredicted.

Mooney, M.; Marsh, M.; Forsyth, C.; Sharpe, M.; Hughes, T.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.; Rae, I.; Chisham, G.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on:

YEAR: 2021     DOI: 10.1029/2020SW002688

AURORA; auroral forecasting; forecast verification; OVATION-Prime 2013; ROC scores; space weather

2019

Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment: Auroral Precipitation and High-Latitude Ionospheric Electrodynamics

As part of its International Capabilities Assessment effort, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center initiated several working teams, one of which is focused on the validation of models and methods for determining auroral electrodynamic parameters, including particle precipitation, conductivities, electric fields, neutral density and winds, currents, Joule heating, auroral boundaries, and ion outflow. Auroral electrodynamic properties are needed as input to space weather models, to test and validate the accuracy of physical models, and to provide needed information for space weather customers and researchers. The working team developed a process for validating auroral electrodynamic quantities that begins with the selection of a set of events, followed by construction of ground truth databases using all available data and assimilative data analysis techniques. Using optimized, predefined metrics, the ground truth data for selected events can be used to assess model performance and improvement over time. The availability of global observations and sophisticated data assimilation techniques provides the means to create accurate ground truth databases routinely and accurately.

Robinson, Robert; Zhang, Yongliang; Garcia-Sage, Katherine; Fang, Xiaohua; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Ngwira, Chigomezyo; Bingham, Suzy; Kosar, Burcu; Zheng, Yihua; Kaeppler, Stephen; Liemohn, Michael; Weygand, James; Crowley, Geoffrey; Merkin, Viacheslav; McGranaghan, Ryan; Mannucci, Anthony;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on: 01/2019

YEAR: 2019     DOI: 10.1029/2018SW002127

Space weather modeling capabilities assessment: Auroral precipitation and high-latitude ionospheric electrodynamics

Robinson, Robert; Zhang, Yongliang; Garcia-Sage, Katherine; Fang, Xiaohua; Verkhoglyadova, Olga; Ngwira, Chigomezyo; Bingham, Suzy; Kosar, Burcu; Zheng, Yihua; Kaeppler, Stephen; , others;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on:

YEAR: 2019     DOI:

2015

Community-wide model validation study for systematic assessment of ionosphere models

Shim, Ja; Kuznetsova, Maria; Rastaetter, Lutz; Bilitza, Dieter; Bingham, Suzy; Bust, Gary; Calfas, Roy; Codrescu, Mihail; Coster, Anthea; Crowley, Geoff; , others;

Published by:       Published on:

YEAR: 2015     DOI:



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