Bibliography

Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, and high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90\% are overpredicted.

Mooney, M.; Marsh, M.; Forsyth, C.; Sharpe, M.; Hughes, T.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.; Rae, I.; Chisham, G.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on:

YEAR: 2021     DOI: 10.1029/2020SW002688

AURORA; auroral forecasting; forecast verification; OVATION-Prime 2013; ROC scores; space weather

Astronomical sky spectra from the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetic superstorms: Observations of O+(2Do–4So) and other emissions

High-resolution spectra of the night sky at near-equatorial latitudes have been obtained with the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph on the 8.2 m Kueyen telescope, European Southern Observatory, Cerro Paranal, Chile, during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetic superstorms. These spectra show indications of both thermospheric and ionospheric disturbance. Numerous emission features observed in these spectra have behaviors that correlate with the negative magnitude of the disturbance storm time index (Dst), a measure of the ring current influence on equatorial magnetic field strength. Specifically, the intensity of the optically forbidden and rarely observed O+(2Do–4So) doublet lines at 372.6 and 372.9 nm increases with decreasing Dst and have profiles that often possess unusual morphology. Also observed on nights with strong geomagnetic activity is sustained emission after twilight from both the N2+ first negative system 0-0 band at 391.4 nm and the He(3p3Po–2s3S) 388.9 nm line. The intensities of permitted neutral oxygen lines nominally arising from electron radiative recombination are suppressed during active periods relative to levels measured during quiescent periods. The pattern of emission in these spectra may reflect the manifestation of a variety of storm time phenomena, including negative ionospheric storms, energetic neutral auroras, and stable auroral red arcs, and indicates substantial energy deposition at high altitudes.

Sharpee, B.; Neill, E.; Slanger, T.;

Published by: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics      Published on:

YEAR: 2008     DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JA013010

spectra; geomagnetic; storm