Bibliography

Height-integrated polar cap conductances during an average substorm

Carter, Jennifer; Milan, Steven; Lester, Mark; Forsyth, Colin; Paxton, Larry; Gjerloev, Jesper; Anderson, Brian;

Published by:       Published on:

YEAR: 2022     DOI:

Echo occurrence in the southern polar ionosphere for the SuperDARN Dome C East and Dome C North radars

In this paper, echo occurrence rates for the Dome C East (DCE) and the new Dome C North (DCN) radars are studied. We report the ionospheric and ground scatter echo occurrence rates for selected periods around equinoxes and solstices in the final part of the solar cycle XXIV. The occurrence maps built in Altitude Adjusted Corrected Geomagnetic latitude and Magnetic Local Time coordinates show peculiar patterns highly variable with season. The comparisons of the radar observations with the International Reference Ionosphere model electron density and with ray tracing simulations allow us to explain the major features of observed patterns in terms of electron density variations. The study shows the great potential of the DCE and DCN radar combination to the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) convection mapping in terms of monitoring key regions of the high-latitude ionosphere critical for understanding of the magnetospheric dynamics.

Marcucci, Maria; Coco, Igino; Massetti, Stefano; Pignalberi, Alessio; Forsythe, Victoriya; Pezzopane, Michael; Koustov, Alexander; Longo, Simona; Biondi, David; Simeoli, Enrico; Consolini, Giuseppe; Laurenza, Monica; Marchaudon, Aurélie; Satta, Andrea; Cirioni, Alessandro; De Simone, Angelo; Olivieri, Angelo; Baù, Alessandro; Salvati, Alberto;

Published by: Polar Science      Published on: jun

YEAR: 2021     DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2021.100684

Echo occurrence; IRI model; Polar cap radars; Ray-tracing

Evaluating Auroral Forecasts Against Satellite Observations

The aurora is a readily visible phenomenon of interest to many members of the public. However, the aurora and associated phenomena can also significantly impact communications, ground-based infrastructure, and high-altitude radiation exposure. Forecasting the location of the auroral oval is therefore a key component of space weather forecast operations. A version of the OVATION-Prime 2013 auroral precipitation model (Newell et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014sw001056) was used by the UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC). The operational implementation of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model at the UK Met Office delivered a 30-min forecast of the location of the auroral oval and the probability of observing the aurora. Using weather forecast evaluation techniques, we evaluate the ability of the OVATION-Prime 2013 model forecasts to predict the location and probability of the aurora occurring by comparing the forecasts with auroral boundaries determined from data from the IMAGE satellite between 2000 and 2002. Our analysis shows that the operational model performs well at predicting the location of the auroral oval, with a relative operating characteristic (ROC) score of 0.82. The model performance is reduced in the dayside local time sectors (ROC score = 0.59) and during periods of higher geomagnetic activity (ROC score of 0.55 for Kp = 8). As a probabilistic forecast, OVATION-Prime 2013 tends to underpredict the occurrence of aurora by a factor of 1.1–6, while probabilities of over 90\% are overpredicted.

Mooney, M.; Marsh, M.; Forsyth, C.; Sharpe, M.; Hughes, T.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.; Rae, I.; Chisham, G.;

Published by: Space Weather      Published on:

YEAR: 2021     DOI: 10.1029/2020SW002688

AURORA; auroral forecasting; forecast verification; OVATION-Prime 2013; ROC scores; space weather

Physical processes of meso-scale, dynamic auroral forms

Meso-scale auroral forms, such as poleward boundary intensifications, streamers, omega bands, beads and giant undulations, are manifestations of dynamic processes in the magnetosphere driven, to a large part, by plasma instabilities in the magnetotail. New observations from ground- and space-based instrumentation and theoretical treatments are giving us a clearer view of some of the physical processes behind these auroral forms. However, questions remain as to how some of these observations should be interpreted, given uncertainties in mapping auroral features to locations in the magnetotatil and due to the significant overlap in the results from a variety of models of different plasma instabilities. We provide an overview of recent results in the field and seek to clarify some of the remaining questions with regards to what drives some of the largest and most dynamic auroral forms.

Forsyth, C; Sergeev, VA; Henderson, MG; Nishimura, Y; Gallardo-Lacourt, B;

Published by: Space Science Reviews      Published on:

YEAR: 2020     DOI: 10.1007/s11214-020-00665-y