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This study evaluates the ability of the OVATION Prime auroral precipitation model to provide operational forecasts of the visible aurora. An operational implementation would primarily provide the general public with some guidance for viewing the aurora. We evaluate the likelihood that if aurorae are predicted to be visible at a location, they will be seen there within the hour. Nighttime model forecasts were validated with Polar Ultraviolet Imager data for Kp >= 3 and for the years 1997 and 1998. The overall fore ...
Published by: Space Weather: The International Journal of Research and Applications Published on: 09/2012
YEAR: 2012   DOI: 10.1029/2011SW000746